Mailbag: Outlook for Pac-12 basketball (2.0), UCLA and the Rose Bowl tangle, counting UW’s ranked wins, TV selections and more

The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly Send questions to wilnerhotline bayareanewsgroup com and include mailbag in the subject line Or hit me on the social media platform X WilnerHotline Specific questions have been edited for clarity and brevity How do you see the rebuilt Pac- stacking up with other conferences in men s basketball beginning next season jimmy Let s start this mailbag with basketball now that the season is underway there s plenty of time to address football issues later in this edition and throughout November To the specific question the Hotline would respond candidly The new Pac- should be more competitive nationally in men s basketball than it will be in football If not something will have gone very wrong on the court The Pac- is attempting to brand itself as a top-five football conference when it begins play in - suggesting that it belongs just behind the ACC Big Ten Big and SEC in the sport s hierarchy based on historical statistics But anyone paying attention this fall should recognize the American is setting a high bar It has clearly outperformed the collection of teams that will make up the new Pac- That dynamic might prove fleeting or fixed it s too soon to draw any conclusions On the basketball side the rebuilt Pac- will have no declares on being a top-five conference because the highest tier isn t limited to four The Big East is effectively a power conference with the likes of Connecticut Villanova St John s Creighton Marquette and others In fact the Big East might be stronger team-for-team than the ACC and Big Ten Until proven otherwise and largely because of Gonzaga the rebuilt Pac- could stake claim to being the sixth-best basketball conference below the sport s Power Five but above the group that includes the American Atlantic Mid-American Missouri Valley Mountain West and West Coast Given the planned reservoir allocation the Pac- should be more achieving on a yearly basis than those conferences Certainly Pac- basketball stands to be more competitive nationally than Pac- football A quick comparison explains our view Gonzaga is a better basketball project than its football equivalent Boise State in the new Pac- No offense to the Broncos but the Zags have performed like a basketball blue blood for years Boise State has not quite reached that level on the field What s more the second-best basketball scheme in the new Pac- San Diego State is superior within its sport to the second-best football operation which would be Washington State Oregon State The Aztecs There isn t a clear option SDSU basketball is just two seasons removed from the Final Four and has reached the Sweet on multiple occasions in the past years The Aztecs are loaded this season too The next basketball tier in the new Pac- features Utah State which has participated in five of the past six NCAA Tournaments and has averaged wins the last three seasons Granted measuring cross-sport success is tricky largely because the NCAA Tournament which represents the desired threshold for basketball is more accessible than the major bowl games and the College Football Playoff as a four- or -team event And the collapse of the Pac- kneecapped the Washington State and Oregon State football programs in a manner that has no equivalent for San Diego State and Utah State basketball But based on what we have witnessed over the years and what s reasonable to expect in - and beyond the rebuilt Pac- has an open road to securing its position as the sixth-best basketball conference The challenge is more daunting on the football side What do you think of UCLA s decision to leave the Rose Bowl and move their football games to SoFi Stadium The Rose Bowl and City of Pasadena are suing UCLA to stop them JR Our instinct is to enter a dash of nuance into the discussion Are the Bruins dead-set on leaving the Rose Bowl for SoFi Stadium Or are they using the threat to negotiate better terms in a multi-decade lease they clearly believe isn t favorable Because on the surface the move makes zero sense This isn t about mileage about SoFi being roughly miles closer to campus than the Rose Bowl It s about identity preservation If UCLA moves to SoFi home of the Chargers and the Rams and mere miles from USC the Bruins would lose whatever morsel of traction they possess in the Southern California sports domain The attendance issues at the Rose Bowl are partly rooted in the struggle for dollars and attention so a large number of college football teams are experiencing across the country The in-home viewing experience is often better than the in-person version But the empty seat situation is largely the development of the second-rate product the Bruins have sent onto the field in Pasadena for years If they were winning at a high level filling the Rose Bowl to a respectable level crowds of or more would not be an issue If the administration believes that a - company would pack the house at SoFi or even come close it s grossly miscalculating Which is why this fascinating saga could conclude with a renegotiated lease in Pasadena You keep writing that if Washington wins out it will only have one success over a Top group But Illinois was ranked when the Huskies won handily in Seattle Rob S Appreciate the question because this issue is a source of confusion for fans each November Yes the Illini were ranked rd two weeks ago when they were overwhelmed in Husky Stadium And yes the Hotline has written several times just now that the Huskies could finish with just one win over a ranked opponent Oregon if they win out That apparent contradiction is rooted in the CFP selection process When the committee crafts the final rankings on Dec - it does not consider where teams were ranked during the season at the time of kickoff of any given meeting The discussion is focused entirely on where teams are ranked on selection weekend Illinois dropped from the AP Top after the lopsided loss in Seattle and at - was not included in the initial CFP rankings disclosed Tuesday And we aren t convinced the Illini will climb back into the rankings by the end of the season they don t have enough schedule juice Admittedly the committee might have a different view If Illinois wins out finishes - and sneaks into the final CFP rankings the Oct end would count as a ranked win for the Huskies and add several shine to their resume Heck it might even push them over the top and into the playoff I ve heard that the Pac- Framework sometimes had first choice of games Does the Big Ten Arrangement even though it s owned mostly by Fox ever have first choice In the same vein what about the SEC and ACC Networks and ESPN draywilson You heard right and wrong Indeed the Pac- Networks had the first pick in the weekly draft once per season but that s a tad misleading because of a quirk in the contract Every year ESPN and Fox grabbed four games two each off the top before the season thereby removing them from the weekly draft So when it came time for the Pac- Structure to use that No pick none of the premier games were available They had been taken off the table The Hotline certainly hasn t examined the Big Ten s contract but we are unaware of any week in which the Big Ten Architecture has the first selection Fox owns largest part of the No picks and places those games in the Big Noon window And keep this critical difference in mind The Pac- schools owned the Pac- Networks which ceased to exist in the summer of It was in particular sense competing with ESPN and Fox for the weekly inventory But Fox is the majority owner of the Big Ten Grid while ESPN owns the SEC and ACC Networks The structure of those weekly drafts is designed to place the best games on Fox ABC and ESPN not the conference networks This weekend helps illustrate the situation in the ACC where the Clemson-Florida State encounter a matchup of unranked teams has been relegated to the ACC Grid Were the stakes for the matchup as high as expected before the season the event assuredly would be on ABC All in all the comparison between the Pac- Networks and its counterparts is apples-to-oranges because of the different ownership structures What are your thoughts on NCAA president Charlie Baker He s been on the job about one-and-a-half years Do you have any insight on his performance as the NCAA president cool brezze Really Baker has been on the job for two-and-a-half years since March The fact that we had to double-check his start date speaks volumes about the roiling landscape When Baker took office NIL was legal but evolving revenue sharing was a mere concept and the NCAA hadn t approved unlimited transfers with immediate eligibility Baker is presiding over a different world a world shaped by the courts not his policies That declared Baker has embraced the changes in a largely reasonable and pragmatic manner He constitutes a monumental upgrade over his predecessor Mark Emmert who steered the NCAA into an abyss so deep the courts had to intervene We would give Baker high marks for his work thus far either an A- or B with the caveat that on several fronts he had no choice but to evolve and accept You published an article stating the Mountain West requirements the Pac- s poaching penalty revenue million soon But doesn t the money withheld this year from the five departing members cover the initial payment NateJones According to the Mountain West Boise State Colorado State Fresno State San Diego State and Utah State owe the conference approximately million in exit fees The schools disagree and three of them those outside California have taken the conference to court over the payments Our understanding is the Mountain West cannot distribute the money until there s a resolution in the circumstance which fits with every comparable situation that has crossed our radar When are disputed funds ever issued by the defendant What happens if the Mountain West schools don t receive the anticipated cash by July We don t expect any delay to right now prompt UNLV and Air Force to depart the conference Instead we re curious about the response of the Mountain West presidents now that it s clear the legal processes will take a multitude of months to play out with soaring attorney fees Will they seek settlements in both cases And if so how would a reduction in cash impact the membership s long-haul commitment to the conference The timing of the promised payments is one element in the broader calculation Is it bad luck that Stanford and Cal are in a new conference but again at odds with the TV provider of NFL Sunday Ticket The hits seem to keep coming even without former Pac- commissioner Larry Scott sfw For those unfamiliar the question refers to the two-week-old carriage dispute between YouTube and ESPN which owns the ACC s media rights and the ACC Structure As a upshot approximately million YouTube subscribers that figure includes the Hotline by the way are not able to watch ESPN content Yes it s bad luck for the Cardinal and Bears who have enough challenges just keeping pace in their new home This matter is wholly unrelated to anything they have done competitively or otherwise or to any policies implemented by ACC commissioner Jim Phillips Comparisons to Scott s misguided strategies are unwarranted But it s deeply unfortunate for all involved And as constantly the dispute will eventually be resolved with only one loser consumers Any news on the Pac- football schedule for ColAthAdv Will The Hotline lately spoke with Merton Hanks chief of Pac- football operations about a slew of matters for next year Our distinct impression They aren t close to a final version of the schedule Hanks explained first and foremost that he is planning on an eight-team structure for next season i e no more expansion He also stated Pac- and campus executives have examined versions of the schedule a number that reflects the immensely complicated situation Related Articles CFB recruiting UCLA s returns Stanford s pickup Cal s favorable flips On media Latest down the Big basketball broadcast plan College football picks BYU USC Arizona cover Oregon Washington don t Holy Amount CFP rankings leave Utah BYU dependent on each other CFP rankings Big Notre Dame big winners ACC snubbed Should the Pac- play eight conference games or seven Should it enter into a scheduling arrangement with another conference Should it create an intra-conference home-and-home model akin to what Washington State and Oregon State have done this season How does College Football Playoff expansion impact the schedule How do changes within the SEC and ACC affect the Pac- s plans Both conferences are switching to nine-game conference schedules prompting the cancellation of several series with teams in other leagues It s five-dimensional chess played inside a wormhole Hanks has targeted December as the window to settle on the future location of the Pac- championship encounter neutral site or on-campus Our hunch is the schedule won t be finalized until early next year Why do you have James Madison ranked th in your AP ballot but San Diego State unranked KoolEconomics There is no right or wrong answer here You could make a development for the Aztecs just as easily as you could for the Dukes they are both - or you could reasonably decide to exclude them both I considered a handful of teams for the final spot and picked the Dukes because their only loss is to No Louisville and they were quite competitive The event was tied entering the fourth quarter Meanwhile San Diego State s only loss came in decisive fashion to an unranked opponent Washington State If you compare victories then SDSU maybe has a narrow edge with its shutout of Cal whereas JMU hasn t beaten a Power Four opponent The Dukes best win is a blowout of Old Dominion Meanwhile James Madison has faced a slightly stronger schedule than SDSU based on the Sagarin computer rankings I went with the Dukes this week Next week maybe the lean is to the Aztecs Or someone else Send 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