With Newsom and Harris considering presidential run, could America choose a California Democrat?

All the tingling chatter about a doable presidential primary face-off between California s two marquee Democrats Gov Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris begs the next question Does a California Democrat stand a chance of winning the White House No state has been more maligned by Republicans especially by President Trump than the golden one Harris in an abbreviated campaign where she was painted as a radical California liberal lost to Trump in November by a narrow vote margin but a sweep of red states And with every social media mention of Newsom especially his acerbic posts mocking Trump a flood of comments are posted follow blaming him for all of California s ills from San Francisco s stubborn homeless challenge to the devastating Los Angeles fires At a time when the country remains deeply divided between urban and rural voters and Trump s influence over the Republican party continues unabated is California s political baggage too heavy for both of them Can their personal brands in a national campaign supersede the weighted label of a California Democrat to ultimately appeal to voters in the Heartland They absolutely have a chance noted Thad Kousser UC San Diego political science professor Polls have consistently shown that they re the two candidates on the top of people s minds right now Now that doesn t mean that they re the true favorites but I think each is a political heavyweight who has a real opportunity here Political science professor David McCuan of Sonoma State is not so sure It s hard to see a Californian winning the hearts and minds of voters in three key battlegrounds that you have to flip to win which are Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin McCuan reported Those three states have gone with the winner every presidential polling together since So what s it going to take Lightning in a bottle McCuan revealed Neither Newsom nor Harris longtime political allies who have both progressive and centrist bonafides have committed to the race yet Despite breathless news coverage about the possibility their comments during weekend TV interviews barely moved the needle Possibly Harris narrated the BBC when required if she might be president one day Although she hasn t decided to run she reported I am not done I have lived my entire career as a life of system and it s in my bones I d be lying otherwise Newsom explained CBS Sunday Morning when appealed whether he would seriously consider a presidential run after the midterm elections Nonetheless the prospective for a Golden State match-up between dueling political cousins presents fascinating dynamics for both a Democratic presidential primary as well as the general voting should one of them get that far The political pathways of Harris and Newsom have largely mirrored each other since both were elected to political office in San Francisco in Newsom as mayor and Harris as district attorney Newsom whose second term as California runs out at the start of has become a champion of redistricting Proposition Harris advanced to state attorney general U S senator and under President Biden vice president It s almost impossible to see a situation in which they both end up in competition mentioned Dan Schnur who teaches political communications at UC Berkeley and USC One of them would end up leaving the race fairly promptly There s not enough room for both They each face separate challenges Harris who not long ago issued her memoir Days explaining her failed presidential campaign will have to convince voters why she deserves another chance Democrats are going to want to make it very much a change voting process reported Bill Whalen a Hoover Institute distinguished protocol fellow They re going to want to find a shiny new object to rally behind She is clearly not that The challenge for Newsom is that he might be peaking too early he declared Newsom has become Trump s top antagonist posting a barrage of social media messages trolling Trump about everything from the president s White House ballroom to his girth Along the way Newsom has poked fun at himself posing as superheroes Despite Newsom s constant reminder that California is among the world s largest economies he will have a lot of explaining to do about the problems he hasn t fixed in California including high housing prices and selected of the highest unemployment and poverty rates in the country Newsom has all sorts of advantages coming into this race the majority notably that he s emerged as the party s most of forceful and most of effective Trump critic Schnur mentioned But it s not hard to imagine one of his primary opponents running an ad with three seconds of grainy video of the Mission District in San Francisco with the caption this is Gavin Newsom s California ' Despite the naysayers and two-and-a-half year lag before the spring presidential primary season both Harris and Newsom are running away with the top two spots for the Democratic primary both above of polling averages Left in the single digits are former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg U S Sen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Pennsylvania Gov Josh Shapiro Minnesota Gov Tim Walz and and Illinois Gov J B Pritzker Several polls are already taking the far-away contest one step further Polymarket which predicts vote outcomes by combining news polls and expert opinions into a value based on a sphere s view shows who would lead a contest between Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Republican Vice President J D Vance The projected winner J D Vance with a chance of winning compared with Newsom with a chance As much as personality appears to rule the day Trump is a New York billionaire developer whose bombastic style captured the souls of discontented rural Americans the presidential race might come down to simple timeworn economic forces In each of the last three elections the economic models that studied where the economic system was going and whether people required change all correctly predicted a Trump win in a Biden preeminence in and a Trump re-election supremacy in announced Kousser of UC San Diego Candidates have to play the economic hand that they re dealt Kousser mentioned Voters may well want to see a change in the direction of the country in and turn to a Democrat even if that Democrat is someone who comes with the baggage of being from California